USDA lifts world cotton output and stocks for 2026/27, trims US farm price to 77 cents

The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecasts for world cotton production, trade and ending stocks in the 2026/27 season, according to its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, approved on 9 October.

World production is now projected at 117.95 million 480-lb bales, up from 117.32 million in September, with Brazil and the United States leading the increase and Argentina lower. World consumption was raised by just over 160,000 bales to 123.08 million, mainly in Vietnam, Malaysia, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Global trade was lifted to 44.71 million bales on higher Brazilian exports, and world ending stocks rose to 70.68 million bales from 69.86 million.

For the United States, USDA raised the crop by 2% to 13.44 million bales as the national yield rose to 790 lb per harvested acre, driven by larger crops in the Delta. US ending stocks were raised 6% to 3.80 million bales, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to 27.5%, and the upland season-average farm price was cut by 1 cent to 77 cents a pound.

USDA left its forecasts for China's production, use and imports unchanged at 33.5 million, 42.0 million and 7.0 million bales respectively. India's production was kept at 24.0 million bales, while its imports were raised to 3.3 million bales from 3.0 million.

Even with the upgrades, world consumption is still projected to exceed production in 2026/27.

What it means for Egyptian exporters

Larger crops in Brazil and the United States and rising global stocks point to comfortable supplies of upland cotton, which should help keep yarn and fabric input costs in check for Egyptian spinners and garment makers that blend imported fibre. For Egyptian extra-long-staple cotton, which trades at a premium, the report is a reminder that buyers will be comparing prices against a well-supplied world market, while higher projected imports by India — a key buyer of Egyptian cotton — are a demand signal worth watching.