ICE cotton futures slide for the week as December contract settles at 78.88 cents

Cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York slid through most of the week ending Friday 2 October, falling from the low 80s to the upper 70s US cents per pound, according to the weekly market commentary by Dr. John Robinson of the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service.

The decline included a limit-down move on Tuesday, which Robinson linked to the usual seasonal factors, weak oil prices and a strong US dollar, together with worrying market news. On Friday the most active December 2026 contract bounced modestly to settle at 78.88 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices and the A Index of world cotton prices moved higher and then lower during the week.

In the US, harvesting and boll opening were running ahead of the five-year average through 28 September, while 35% of the crop was rated good to excellent and another 30% fair. Net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending 24 September were 202,600 running bales, slightly lower than the week before, and weekly export shipments stayed below the pace needed to meet the US Department of Agriculture's target for 2026/27.

Speculative positioning turned more bearish. The CFTC's supplemental report for 29 September showed 3,393 more hedge-fund short positions week on week, along with 2,458 fewer hedge-fund long positions and a smaller net long position for index funds.

"The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton," Robinson wrote.

What it means for Egyptian exporters

Lower US futures cut the cost of imported upland cotton for Egyptian spinners and garment makers that blend it with local fibre, and can help margins on export orders priced earlier. Robinson's note that mills' unfixed call sales now exceed purchases points to buying interest, so the dip may not last; the International Cotton Advisory Committee also projects a small global deficit for 2026/27. Buyers of cotton yarn and fabric should watch whether prices hold near these levels.