ICAC sees world cotton use overtaking production in 2026/27 as output falls 3.8%

World cotton consumption is set to outpace production in the 2026/27 season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said in its outlook published on 1 October. The Washington-based body projects global production at 25.94 million tonnes, down 3.8% from 26.98 million tonnes in 2025/26, while consumption rises 1.1% to 26.14 million tonnes from 25.85 million tonnes.

That leaves consumption about 201,000 tonnes above production, reversing the 2025/26 surplus of 1.13 million tonnes, according to ICAC.

The committee expects world cotton trade to slip 1.7% to 9.70 million tonnes, from 9.87 million tonnes, and ending stocks to ease 1.1% to 17.50 million tonnes, from 17.70 million tonnes.

ICAC's price projection for the Cotlook A Index, the benchmark for cotton traded internationally, ranges from 65 to 99 US cents per pound, with a midpoint of 80 cents.

The outlook also highlights West Africa, where production is projected to rise 6% to 960,000 tonnes. ICAC noted that yields in Côte d'Ivoire have climbed from 259 kg per hectare in 2022/23 to 483 kg per hectare in 2025/26. The committee mentioned that the fourth edition of FICOTA is scheduled to take place in Cairo in November 2026.

What it means for Egyptian exporters

A shift from surplus to a small deficit, with stocks slightly lower, gives some support to cotton prices after a weak spell. Egyptian spinners and garment makers that buy upland cotton should plan purchases with the wide 65–99 cent range in mind. ICAC's figures cover the whole market rather than extra-long-staple cotton, but firmer world prices would narrow the gap between commodity cotton and premium Egyptian varieties, which can help Egyptian lint and yarn sellers.