The average yield is
expected to improve slightly to 766 kg/ha. The rebound in production is
driven by the United States, where output is anticipated to jump by over
50% to 4.1 million tons. Larger crops are also expected in India,
Pakistan, China, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Australia, the CFA Zone,
and many other countries. .World cotton mill use is projected to
continue to recover in 2010/11, growing by 2% to 24.9 million tons,
pushed by continued improvement in global economic growth. China and
India are expected to account for 80% of the increase in world cotton
mill use in 2010/11. Global imports are expected to continue to recover
in 2010/11, rising by 4% to 8 million tons. This increase will be driven
by Chinese imports, forecast 22% larger at 2.9 million tons. .U.S.
exports are projected up by 19% to 3.2 million tons in 2010/11, whereas
Indian exports could decline to 1.2 million tons due to a reduced
exportable surplus. As world cotton production is expected to
exceed mill use in 2010/11, world ending stocks are forecast to rise by
3% to 9.8 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to
remain stable at 39%, much lower than the recent five-year average of
49% (2004/05 to 2008/09). .The ICAC Price Model forecasts a
2010/11 season-average Cotlook A Index of 85 cents per pound. The 95%
confidence interval extends from 71 to 102 cents per pound. This
forecast implies a 9% increase with respect to the 2009/10 average.
However, caution must be exercised since all commodity markets are
subject to great uncertainty.