IMF expectations refer to that income per capita in developed countries will grow slowly (1.9% in 2003 while 2.9 in 2004) accompanied with high increases in world cotton prices; which means that if a decrease occurred by 20% in prices would lead to an increase by 1% in world cotton consumption.As the new technologies used in producing chemical fibres products aiming at competing cotton fibres which will affect the production of cotton in the coming years while cotton consumption is expected to register highest levels (21.2 million tons) despite that mills consumption rates of cotton will decrease from 4% in 2002/2003 to 1% in 2003/2004.Regarding world cotton exports all expectations assure that exports are going to decrease by the season 2003/2004 to reach 6.4 million tons lower than the last year (6.6 million tons). Besides, it is expected that American cotton exports are to decrease to reach 2.4 million in 2003/2004 instead of 2.6 million tons in 2002/2003. And, China is expected to import –without Taiwan- 700 thousands tons of cotton and to export 100 thousands tons.
Source: Sahara Group- R&D Department