levels of stocks and mill use imply a global stocks-to-use ratio of 43%
in both 2009/10 and 2010/11, down from a five-year average of 50%
(2004/05 to 2008/09). This is the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio
since 2003/04. Stocks are expected to remain tighter than in previous
years in many countries, due to sustained demand recovery”.World
cotton trade is expected to increase to 7.8 million tons in 2010/11, up
by 3% from this season. Chinese imports will drive the world total,
with a forecast increase of 21% to 2.7 million tons. Exports from the
United States and many other countries are expected to increase in
2010/11, fueled by increased production ..Based on a price
forecast of 78 cents per pound for 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model
forecasts a 2010/11 season-average Cotlook A Index of 85 cents per
pound. The 95% confidence interval extends from 72 to 101 cents per
pound. This forecast implies a 9% increase with respect to the 2009/10
forecast. However, caution must be exercised since all commodity
markets are subject to great uncertainty, ICAC said in the press
release .


Source:Al Ahram newspaper