” World cotton area in 2010/11 is forecast at 32.9 million hectares, up
9 percent from the previous year and similar to the pre-crisis cotton
area. Global cotton yield is forecast at 774 kg/ha, up 6 percent from
the previous year. Yields are forecast higher in India and the United
States the world’s second and third largest cotton producers and also in
Brazil and Uzbekistan, due to more favorable growing conditions”.In
Australia, 2010/11 cotton area is now expected to increase to 375,000
hectares, up 88 percent from last season. The area forecast the highest
in almost a decade is attributable to favorable world prices and ample
supply of water from rainfall. Australia’s 2010/11 production is
forecast to nearly double to 3.0 million bales from the previous year ..China,
India, the United States, Brazil, and Uzbekistan are expected to
increase production in 2010/11 by 2 percent, 12 percent, 55 percent, 31
percent, and 23 percent, respectively, to 32.5 million bales, 26.0
million bales, 18.8 million bales, 7.0 million bales, and 4.8 million
bales. Pakistan’s production of 9.3 million bales is slightly below last
season, but is revised down 9 percent from the July 2010 estimate,
reflecting damage from the recent floods .World Ending Stocks to Decline as Mill Use Rises in 2010/11″ ..World
cotton consumption in 2010/11 is forecast at 120.5 million bales, a
3-percent increase from the previous year. Most major cotton consumers
are expected to increase mill use in 2010/11. China and India are
forecast to consume 50.0 million bales and 20.5 million bales in
2010/11, up 3 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from the previous
year. Turkey, Brazil, and the United States are forecast to increase
mill use 3 percent, 5 percent, and 4 percent to 6.0 million bales, 4.6
million bales, and 3.6 million bales, respectively, from the previous
year. Pakistan’s 2010/11 mill use is expected to remain unchanged from
the previous year at 11.0 million bales, as constraints on world
supplies available for import limit growth ..Global cotton ending
stocks in 2010/11 are forecast at 45.4 million bales, down 3.3 percent
from the preceding year and the lowest in 14 years. World cotton
consumption has outpaced production since 2005/06 leading to the
tightening of global stocks. The production-consumption gap, which
widened to 16 million bales in 2009/10, is expected to decline to 3.5
million bales in 2010/11. Nonetheless, as shown in figure 4, growing
concerns about declining world stocks have boosted global cotton prices;
the A-index has averaged over 92 cents thus far this marketing year and
exceeded 99 cents for September 8 and 9 ..China’s ending stocks in
2010/11 are forecast to decline 16 percent to 15.8 million bales, the
lowest in 16 years. India’s 2010/11 ending stocks are forecast at 7.7
million bales, up 15 percent from the previous year, partly due to the
domestic policy restricting exports .Global Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11″ ..World
cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 38.0 million bales, up 7 percent
from a year ago. Export forecasts for Australia and India are
significantly revised from last month’s forecast due to developments in
those countries. In Australia, 2010/11exports are forecast at 3.0
million bales, up 25 percent from the previous month’s forecast and 19
percent from a year earlier as production gains are expected to boost
Australia’s exports in 2010/11 to their highest level in 5 years ..For
India, authorities have announced a reinstatement of the cotton export
cap, which is expected to lower 2010/11 exports. India’s 2010/11 exports
are forecast at 5.0 million bales, down 23 percent from the previous
month and 24 percent from the preceding year. The United States, the
world’s leading exporter of cotton is expected to export 15.5 million
bales, up 29 percent from a year ago. Brazil’s 2010/11 exports are
forecast to rise 11 percent from the previous year; however, Brazil’s
net trade is likely to fall as mills procure more cotton from foreign
suppliers. Uzbekistan’s cotton exports in 2010/11 are forecast to
decline 1 percent from a year ago to 3.75 million bales ..On the
import side, China the leading global cotton importer is forecast to
import 12.8 million bales in 2010/11, up 16 percent from the previous
year. Indonesia and Pakistan are forecast to import 2.1 million bales
and 1.8 million bales in 2010/11, an increase of 1 percent and 27
percent, respectively, from the previous year. For South Korea and
Turkey, 2010/11 imports are forecast to decline 1 percent and 21 percent
to 1.0 million bales and 3.4 million bales, respectively .